The Investment Thread
Near term is definitely difficult to predict. The biggest challenge to the economy right now is on the supply side. Demand is very strong and there is plenty of money floating around. We had built our economy on just-in-time delivery which is a wonderfully cost-efficient model and when it's running smoothly allows for easy transitions to new products and markets... however, as we are seeing, it assumes smooth supply chains in perpetuity.
So, the question is, can we smooth out our supply chain while simultaneously gently slowing down demand without triggering a recession? My guess is probably not. In which case you're looking at a recession and given our massive debt load, we have fewer tools to combat the recession.
I'm mildly pessimistic, but I also don't think it'll be catastrophic.
This is the Nasdaq composite. 2018 dip vs today. Any of you think this current dip is just a correction without a crash?
Near term is definitely difficult to predict. The biggest challenge to the economy right now is on the supply side. Demand is very strong and there is plenty of money floating around. We had built our economy on just-in-time delivery which is a wonderfully cost-efficient model and when it's running smoothly allows for easy transitions to new products and markets... however, as we are seeing, it assumes smooth supply chains in perpetuity.
So, the question is, can we smooth out our supply chain while simultaneously gently slowing down demand without triggering a recession? My guess is probably not. In which case you're looking at a recession and given our massive debt load, we have fewer tools to combat the recession.
I'm mildly pessimistic, but I also don't think it'll be catastrophic.