The Investment Thread

Turfie said
I really wish I knew what was all happening behind the scenes. From big banks, hedge funds, brokerages, exchanges, retail inflow/outflow, liquidations, leverages, fed back room talks, mortgage lenders, supply chain…etc

I think it would be absolutely fascinating.

Well, it's a lot of moving parts, and they certainly don't all move in the same direction at the same time. I mean, when I was an advisor years ago, we talked about asset allocation, diversification or concentration, risk appetite and rotating sectors. Every few weeks we'd move money from one basket of stocks in a sector to another depending on research, guidance from select asset managers and a small dash of intuition.

Right now, I think headline risk, meaning some big news negatively impacting the markets are fairly well baked in. We've already dealt with a ton of it over the last 2 years, Covid, election mess, several controversies in the marketplace and global crisis with the Russia-Ukraine war. I think obviously there's still some significant risk because we haven't seen any truly shocking numbers, just this steady inflation and with Fed tightening monetary policy, housing bubble could deflate very quickly. Would suck for me in a way because we bought last year probably about 6-8 months before peak prices. I could sell tomorrow and come out ahead 10%, but then, it's where we live and we'd still have to find another place.

I'm pretty sure the banks are going to tighten up their lending practices so the days of not being able to get good rates and easy approval are gonna be gone for a little while most likely.

I'm not optimistic we'll see regulations dealing with the shenanigans of stock prices being somewhat manipulated especially when it comes to shorts and short squeezes. It's been a bit too much business as usual imo.