The Investment Thread

I still think the market is probably going down. Maybe even a long way down. I'll put at 60% chance of finding new lows at least once in the next 6 weeks.

I just bought a lot of AAL $13 calls for July 29. Here is my thinking. If the market finds a bottom here, then airlines are going to scream. American it is difficult to find a seat on a plane last minute and they are absurdly expensive. The next earnings report is going to be a banger, I'm sure of that. They report on July 28. If the market finds a bottom here then it's going to run in to the earnings report and then blow the lid off. I think there is a 60% chance I lose my total investment. However, I think there is a 40% chance that I can run a 300% gain. #PotOdds