TSLA could go much lower. They are still extremely overpriced based on current sales to earnings. They also had some major production issues and cash burn problems that will likely be even more significant on the next earnings report. The longer these issues plaque them the more market share they will lose in the long haul to what is becoming a crowded market space. Elon's twitter rants aren't doing the company any favors either.
There's a situation in my head in which TSLA goes and tests $400 in the next two months.
I do think you are right though, I do believe it will recover and in a year or two we'll see it pushing new highs. Once the supply chain issues sort out, TSLA should be able to maximize production at the new factories and recapture market share it is losing. This will also bring the PE ratio down to normal levels and make the stock soar.