It seems a simple scenario -- if the Saints win the NFC-South, then the Bucs don't win the NFC-S. I'm going to Ceasar's to check the odds and place the bet. Because, I believe, the Saints will go 6-0 in the NFC-South and the Bucs will be no better than 4-2. Plus, the full record for both teams will reflect a direct competition for wins to get that #1 NFC Seed.
The Path to 14 Wins...
NFC-South.. the easiest path to the playoffs is win your division. The Falcons and Panthers are no challenge and both teams suffer at QB. Then the Bucs have been owned by the Saints defense and, in the words of Malcom Jenkins, the Saint's defense is "tooled" to stop Tom Brady, This year, the Saints offense is tooled to produce NFC-S wins in a 6-0 season.
This season, the Saints are scheduled to play AFC-W and NFC-West teams. In the preseason, these are considered among the toughest divisions in pro footballl, and the AFC-West has four of the best QBs in the NFL. The Saints advantage is a defense featuring the Honey Badger has experience studying and playing these teams twice each year and his experience can help neutralize these QB talents. Saints versus AFC-W, 3 wins and 1 loss.
Saints versus NFC-W, 3 wins, 1 loss. Saints defense should be favored against the non-QB Seahawks and the Non-film Studying Cards. The motivation to beat the Rams will be easy and the Saints have a history of success against Stafford. Then there are the 49ers who will play the season with a sophomore QB who will be handing the ball to RBs all day until the Saints offense makes the team a one-dimensional passing team. The Saints could go 4-0 versus this division and make a resounding statement about what to expect come the playoff tournament.
This is not a Cupcake Campaign of teams, but I have the Saints 12-2 in these 14 games discussed above. The Vikings, Browns and Eagles should be 2 wins and 1 loss versus the Saints. The Browns have a good defense and some offense, but I'm predicting, with or without Watson, the Browns won't generate enough offense for a win. And I'm projecting the Saints will split the Vikings and Eagles. The Vikings don't have Mike Zimmer to defend against the Saints offense. And a high-powered Saints offense could make Philly abandon the running game and throw the ball. We only need 2 wins versus these 3 teams.
Bottom line.. when I initially looked at the schedule and saw the teams, I was thinking 8 games and some "possible" wins. Then the light came on. There are many factors that makes teams winners -- the Saints have talent on offense and defense. Saints have a top five defenses and an offense that can regularly produce 30-point games. And the Saints have a cohesive roster, leadership and players who are buying in. That's a formula for success.
My prediction for the 2022 Season is 14 wins and 3 losses, +/- 2 games.
GO Saints!!