China/Taiwan fight.

HoustonSaint68 said

I think the disconnect between us is that you think that I am arguing an objective legal case and I am merely arguing a realpolitik one with the selfish interests of America as my north star.

I agree that China is intent on replacing America's (relatively benign) global hegemony with a more hostile Chinese global hegemony. But, beyond Taiwan, I don't think that includes implementation of that hegemony by military force over other sovereign nations assuming a continued strong US military presence in Asia. I believe that Taiwan is different for mainland China (not just Xi or the CCP, but a very large portion of the mainland Chinese people) due to common ethnic heritage, the non-indigenous history of Taiwan, and the lineage of the current Taiwanese government from the "losing" side of a civil war.

I am not blind or unsympathetic to the real world endgame of my view. But that doesn't change my view of what I think is best for the United States and, frankly, the rest of the world. And with absolute certainty there will be red lines that have to be clearly drawn and defended with the PRC in the coming decades. But Taiwan is very personal to them, and that raises the stakes immensely for serious miscalculation between the two heaviest hitters on the planet. That's not a sitiuation where I would choose to die in a ditch on right or wrong.

I heartily acknowledge that I could be wrong.

Click to expand...

I understand, and actually am somewhat sensitive to China's geopolitical position. The problem with them is that they are dependent on oil exports from the Middle East. They are also not food secure and also import quite a bit of food and agricultural inputs (i.e. fertilzier). All of this maritime traffic passes through the straight of Molucca, and out towards the Indian ocean which they can't currently patrol to any degree because their don't have muc hof of a blue water navy (yet)

There are certain geopolitical analysts like Peter Zeihan who paradoxically think that the US has in some ways is propping up China by guaranteeing freedom of navigation on the high seas, that China would be Fork*ed if the US simply pulls up shop and goes home, and various actors lay claim to large swaths of the ocean. (In fact, Zeihan predicts a total collapse of China no matter what the US does as we know if for various reasons - demographics being a big one) Personally I think its a bit overboard, I doubt anyone would really try it and piss off China that much - maybe some pirates out of East Africa but they would be little more than annoyance.

I would really like some sort of peaceful settlement thats not a capitulation, most likely involving demilitarization. The sticking point would be that there is no way Taiwan would ever permit PRC troops on its shores nor give up its self defense forces, and would also maintain quasi-independence. In that case can China really claim that they "retook" Taiwan. And similar to Hong Kong, if Taiwan gets this "special deal" why wouldn't other provinces want it as well? So I doubt the PRC ever accepts it.