China/Taiwan fight.

DCSaints_Fan said
I understand, and actually am somewhat sensitive to China's geopolitical position. The problem with them is that they are dependent on oil exports from the Middle East. They are also not food secure and also import quite a bit of food and agricultural inputs (i.e. fertilzier). All of this maritime traffic passes through the straight of Molucca, and out towards the Indian ocean which they can't currently patrol to any degree because their don't have muc hof of a blue water navy (yet)

There are certain geopolitical analysts like Peter Zeihan who paradoxically think that the US has in some ways is propping up China by guaranteeing freedom of navigation on the high seas, that China would be Fork*ed if the US simply pulls up shop and goes home, and various actors lay claim to large swaths of the ocean. (In fact, Zeihan predicts a total collapse of China no matter what the US does as we know if for various reasons - demographics being a big one) Personally I think its a bit overboard, I doubt anyone would really try it and piss off China that much - maybe some pirates out of East Africa but they would be little more than annoyance.

I would really like some sort of peaceful settlement thats not a capitulation, most likely involving demilitarization. The sticking point would be that there is no way Taiwan would ever permit PRC troops on its shores nor give up its self defense forces, and would also maintain quasi-independence. In that case can China really claim that they "retook" Taiwan. And similar to Hong Kong, if Taiwan gets this "special deal" why wouldn't other provinces want it as well? So I doubt the PRC ever accepts it.

Good stuff. And, don't forget water resources as well.

This is where I think we need to learn the lessons of WWII relative to the predicament of the Japanese and what led to their decision to expand militarily to secure resources and strike the US first.

And, I think what we've learned from Ukraine vis-a-vis Taiwan is to stop with sending the shiny new military toys to them and insist that they recast their military in a grittier, attrition-heavy way that prods the PRC to reconsider the cost of taking Taiwan by force. Also, I'm far from educated on the specific subject but my gut tells me that if Taiwan doesn't reconsider its all-volunteer approach to military service, I'm tripling down on my view that we shouldn't put major elements of our own military (necessary for keeping other bad guys at bay) in harm's way in the event of a conflict.

With my humongous broad brush out now, I think the PRC is MUCH different than, say, the Russians in their preferred approach if not in their eventual endgame. They'll happily go the peaceful route to secure those needed resources and, to a MUCH greater degree than for Russia, war is not in their strategic best interests. But, as I said before, Taiwan is personal to them and a very large portion of their populace and I don't trust them to make completely logical decisions when it comes to a tussle over Taiwan as opposed to, say, fishing rights in the South China Sea.