ESPN Early Mock Draft

TMQ does a good job of explaining the nonsense of predicting the draft, mocks and how they change

This year Kiper issued no fewer than six formal mock drafts, plus made innumerable predictions on ESPN television and radio, combining wrong predictions -- "I don't want to say it's 100 percent certain, but it's more than likely the Detroit Lions aren't keeping the second pick" -- with constant self-contradiction. Consider Kiper on Brady Quinn. Throughout fall 2006, Quinn was the top-ranked collegiate on Kiper's "Big Board." In early January, after the Raiders qualified for the first choice and after JaMarcus Russell bested Quinn in the Sugar Bowl, Kiper opined, "Brady Quinn should be a lock to land in Oakland." (Russell at that point had not declared, but was expected to.) In February, Kiper made Russell the likely first choice, saying JaMarcus had "a better body of work and stronger performances in big games." But Kiper already had seen Quinn's and Russell's games when he said Quinn was better! In mocks, Kiper had Quinn selected second by Detroit, third by Cleveland, seventh by Minnesota, ninth by Miami. Midwinter, Kiper turned against Quinn, saying, "He didn't play his best against the elite teams. Against the elite competition he struggled." Then in April, Kiper started to like Quinn again, calling him "at his best in pressure situations." On draft day, Kiper declared, "They say Quinn didn't perform well in big games, but that's not true," and Kiper proceeded to narrate clips of Quinn performing well against elite competition. He added, "Quinn's problem at Notre Dame is that he didn't have the best players around him." So Quinn failed in big games and succeeded in big games and was the best player in college and also a letdown and anyway his teammates were to blame. And yes, we were all surprised when Quinn slid to 22nd -- I don't claim to understand it. Anyway for the record, here's Mel before the draft: "There's no chance of [Quinn] falling out of the top 10. It's not going to happen."

Kiper on Greg Olsen in February: "He'll be there as a second-round pick. I don't think he played well enough to be a first-round pick." Then the Miami tight end's stock rose when he aced his combine appearance. After the combine, Kiper projected Olsen to go to Chicago at the 31st pick. By March, Kiper began projecting Olsen into the middle of the first round, saying Olsen has "great hands and is very athletic … he's the complete package." Asked in a chat if Olsen could last till the Bears at 31, Kiper answered, "No chance now. That's not going to happen." By draft day, Kiper rated Olsen the 11th-best performer available. Kiper had Olsen rocketing up from a guy who didn't play very well to a lottery pick, and the gentleman did not appear in a single game during this period! Kiper should have stayed with his instincts: Olsen went late in the first, at the 31st selection, to Chicago.

In different mocks, Kiper had the Cowboys using their first pick on Aaron Ross or Robert Meacham or Reggie Nelson or Dwayne Jarrett or Dwayne Bowe; they chose Anthony Spencer. Kiper had the Saints using their first choice on Chris Houston or Darrelle Revis or Daymeion Hughes or Ross. New Orleans took Meacham, while Hughes, whom Mel also projected as a first-round choice of New England, wasn't picked until Round 3. In February, Kiper said quarterback John Beck would go no higher than the fourth round, while quarterback Kevin Kolb would go no higher than the fifth; then in mocks, Kiper had Beck drafted in the second round and Kolb in the third. (Both went in the second.) Shortly before the draft, Mel offered weirdly specific forecasts such as, "If John Beck and Trent Edwards are still on the board after the first round, the Lions will take one of them with the second pick in the second round." Both were on the board when it was the Lions' turn with the second choice in the second round, and Detroit traded the pick. Kiper said Houston would select a cornerback in the first round, either Leon Hall or Darrelle Revis, and "if both Hall and Revis are available at Houston's turn, it will be interesting to see" which of the two the Texans picked. Both were available, and Houston took neither. Just before draft day, Kiper said Buffalo would chose Patrick Willis in the first round and Antonio Pittman in the second round; neither happened. Kiper projected Pittman to be the third tailback chosen; he was the 10th chosen. Mel projected Brigham Young tight end Jonny Harline as a third-round choice; he wasn't chosen at all. Of course Kiper's predictions were right on many points: He had the Ravens taking Ben Grubbs and the Colts taking Anthony Gonzalez, for instance. But if you predict practically every outcome, you'll be right sometimes by chance! In mocks or interviews, Kiper had Alan Branch going sixth to Washington or 11th to San Francisco or 13th to St. Louis or 21st to Denver or 23rd to Kansas City or 25th to the Jets; as the defensive tackle's stock declined, Mel said Branch was "too physically gifted to slide out of the first round." Branch lasted till the second round. Here's my favorite Mel moment of 2007. Ten days before the draft, he forecast Courtney Taylor as a third-round choice. Late Sunday afternoon, with only diehard draftniks still tuned in, Taylor went in the sixth round. "Some people had Taylor as a third-round choice, but he lacks speed," Kiper said.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/070501&sportCat=nfl