Ukraine

Two things I think.
One the Southern front offensive made great sense because there was a huge propaganda prize at the end, Kherson. Secondly, The Southern front is shorter in length & width with a great natural defensive river, the Dnipro River which had limited bridges and restricted Russian resupply efforts. The Russians realized that they couldn't defend Kherson with the river at their back and no bridges. But Ukraine can defend Kherson with the river as natural defensive line.

The Southern part of the country hasn't been under as much influence as the Eastern part (Donbas). Since 2014 Russian forces have controlled much of this Eastern territory. The East also has a huge natural border with Russia thus making resupply easier. The South is very much more favorable for attack since the front is smaller and the Russians have to bring enforcements either from all the way around and up the single bridge at the Kerch strait or across the narrow Mariupol - Melitopol line which has few East West roads and rail lines linking these areas.

Holding the East has been trading space for time. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Ukranian strike is a strike to retake Mariupol/Melitopol. I think they save taking the Donbas for last.
I think it's as simple as Ukraine making a push at Zaporhizia and heading to Mariupol. This will cut the russians in half and cut off Crimea at the same time. The russians want Crimea more than they do Bahkmut. So, they will have to shift their forces from the north to go on the offensive in that direction. When they do, Ukraine will concentrate on taking the Donbas first because Crimea isn't going anywhere and will be cut off from supplies. The winter offensive, IMO, will be in the north and with the arrival of spring, they will move south towards Crimea. One of the main reasons I'm thinking this is that russia is trying to disable the ZNPP. Ukraine will want to liberate that area as soon as they can. When they do, they will continue to Mariupol.