After months of not following it I have been reading a bit and having conversations with managers. Seems like there’s a lot of push/pull going on and outlooks vary substantially. Really all comes down to the Fed it seems - unless full on recession creeps in.
I agree. I got really busy the last 3 months and haven't been able to keep track. I did have a buy target of SP 3600 and will still start to buy at that point when it gets there.
I do think there are still a whole lot of headwinds. The idea that the market would start a new bull run the day the fed started to ease up on hikes has shown to be no bueno which is a really good sign sanity is starting to creep back in. Crypto imploding and fraud being exposed is a really good sign that a bottoming process may be happening there. I get the feeling the crypto market is just going to fade into background for some time, maybe even years before seeing a comeback. As for stocks. I think we have to let the rate hikes unwind downhill and get through China Covid before we start to see anything that resembles normalcy. I'll be shocked if we aren't in recession by then. I've been saying that we start seeing the indicators of recession start this fall and by Q1 we are in a full blown recession. I do think much of that is already priced in.
If I stick to my guns and history, then we do not see a bottom until we see a bloodbath of a day, something we have not seen yet.