Report: Raiders haven’t given Derek Carr permission to seek trade
I made mention of those numbers.
Carr as a Raider
217 TDs (avg. 24 per season - 4.4 TD Rate)
99 INTS (avg. 11 per season - 2.0 INT Rate)
248 YPG
64.6% completion percentage (aDOT since 2015 - 7.5)
Winston as a Buc
121 TDs (avg. 24 per season - 4.9 TD Rate)
88 INTS (avg. 17.6 per season - 3.5 INT Rate)
272 YPG
61.3% completion percentage (aDOT- 10.2)
Winston before Arians:
88 TDs (avg. 22 per season - 4.6 TD Rate)
58 INTs (avg. 14.5 per season - 3.0 INT Rate)
261 YPG
61.6% completion percentage (aDOT - 10.2)
What about any of those numbers make Carr significantly better than Winston? If we are being honest, nothing. And I know people like to say you can make stats look anyway you want, so I added yearly averages, rates, per games and completion percentage with aDOT. It's really all about perception. The same way that people said that Dalton moved the ball better against the Vikings than the week before against the Panthers, but in reality, we gained 19 first downs both weeks. Eye test...lol
Again, I'm not against getting Carr per se (more concerned about asking price), but I'm against the notion that he is some "significant" upgrade when there is nothing that backs up that notion outside of a person's perception (because numbers and metrics doesn't back it up).
You want to talk about productivity and then ignore an indicator of productivity.
The 2:1 TD to INT ratio is a sort of benchmark that directly addresses what you're saying you want to consider. Arguably the two most important qualities you want in a QB are to score points and minimize turnovers. Measuring that as a ratio indicates how a QB is doing on the balance.
Elite talents like Mahomes, Burrow, and Herbert are sitting at almost 4:1 (Mahomes) and 3:1 for the other two. Rodgers is over 4:1. Tom Brady is over 3:1. Brees was comfortably over 2:1. Josh Allen is sitting above 2:1 as is Carr. Winston is nowhere close. And that's not a surprise because for all of his ability, the knock on him has been how careless he can be with the football. If you were to adjust his numbers to match even Carr's rate, he's 71 TDs off the pace given how many interceptions he's thrown. That's significant even if you decide to ignore it.
On another measure, Carr has had four seasons with a completion percentage of 67.3 or higher (Best: 70.4). Winston's best season was 64.6 and it was the only season he was above 64.
And you're making allowances for Winston - as a Buc and before Arians - that you aren't making for Carr. Both have played enough football at this point that the trendlines are well enough established. Carr has played under 6 different head coaches with the Raiders but has been more so a model of consistency at a higher level compared to Winston.
I like Winston and was enthusiastic about him as a project for Payton. I thought if anybody could get him to play closer to his ceiling, this was an ideal scenario. That's over and now Winston is coming off two seasons that have been shortened by injuries. I'm still pulling for him but his future is a lot more uncertain at this point and that's a real shame.
I think (and I can't really justify this belief) that Winston has the higher ceiling of the two. However, I have a greater confidence that Carr can play closer to his ceiling and reliably better than Winston, based on what both have shown to this point, and especially now that Payton isn't a part of the equation.