His last deal was basically four years $140m with $25m guaranteed. He only got paid the $25m, and didn’t get a penny from a single year of his three-year extension.
I don’t think his agent will let that happen to him again, they are likely going for a bigger first year cash amount this time. Spotrac estimates his AAV at $38m/yr, which would be 10th overall for QB’s. If that’s his market, that could very well put his first year payout at $50m or more, based on the ten biggest QB contracts having a first year cash that averages 140% of the AAV.