Alvin Kamara indicted. Court date is set for March 2.
I am not sure that anyone on this forum knows enough about the criminal-justice system in Clark County, Nevada, to really predict what is going to happen.
Of course. But that goes for every criminal case. DA's, judges, juries, the political environment, etc. are going to be different in every jurisdiction. Add to that, we don't even have a clear picture of all the facts in this case, so yeah, it's difficult to predict what will happen with a high degree of accuracy.
That doesn't mean, however, that we can't discuss the case, and there are general precepts of law and procedure that we can apply to most cases in evaluating this one as it develops. There are entire TV channels devoted to such things. :)
In my experience, there is a difference between plea-bargaining, where a defendant pleads guilty to fewer offenses or a lesser offense than what he is charged with in return for the other offense or offenses being dismissed, and sentence-bargaining, where it seems the sentence on a plea will be less than it will be if there is a trial and the defendant is found guilty.
Well sure. The thing that motivates most defendants to plea out is the promise of a lighter sentence. But "sentence bargaining" as you describe it, and plea bargaining are often tied together. Especially when you take into account mandatory minimums.
It's well known that defendants who are convicted at trial will get on average 3x the sentence they'd get pleading guilty to the
same charge. So yes, if for example
Battery resulting in great bodily harm carries a 1-5 year mandatory min, a defendant might hope to plea for something closer to one year, whereas he might get something closer to five if he goes to trial. So the
sentence is changing, but the crime he's convicted with stays the same in either case.
But if a defendant so charged wants to
avoid prison altogether, with that mandatory minimum there's no choice but to get the charge reduced, or counts dropped, to ones that don't carry a minimum prison term. Mandatory mins aren't like sentencing guidelines, and DA's & judges typically don't have a lot of room in sentencing to deviate down from them.
Based on the law as written, if Kamara pleads guilty to the battery count
as charged, or convicted at trial, he's going inside. The law requires that. A plea to lesser battery charge, and he might avoid it. That's what plea bargaining is all about.