Is There Anyone In This Draft Worth Trading Up For Unless the Compensation Is Relatively Small?
Looking at percentages of players who earn a second contract that are picked after round 3 is eye opening. Less than 18% of picks 4-7 rnd, get a second contract or are still with the team. I think that rounds 1-3 are crucial and that's how Mickey looks at it. I'm coming over to the trade up idea but only if we use 4-7 round picks to do it, still don't like giving 1st and 2nd round picks away!
I have been a vocal proponent of TRADE DOWN and accumulate MORE picks, for YEARS. Purely for statistical reasons. More picks = more opportunities for starters = more opportunities for an anomaly to defy the odds.
But you bring up an interesting point....the success rate in those lower rounds is actually quite low. A pick is a pick, but you would need at least 5 7th round picks to statistically simulate the success rate of a 1st rounder. That's not sustainable either.
We don't get to make those decisions, and nobody in the Saints org is listening to our thoughts (as it should be, LOL!), but I'll come around to your line of thinking if I can make 2 tweaks to your thoughts.....can we make rounds 1-4 the crucial rounds? The Saints have made some very good picks in the 4th round....off the top of my head, Jahri Evans and Ceedy Duce. Conversely, the Saints have not been very good in the 1st, IMO....performing below statistical expected average. Accordingly, they have been very good, perhaps one of the best, drafting in rounds 2-4 and with UDFA. I'm hard pressed to think of many solid picks in the 5th round (Carl Nicks is all I can think of)....we've been abysmal in the 6th....and outside of Marques Colston and Zach Strief, have any other 7th rounders made the roster? That's 2 that I can remember in 17 years. So yes, I could get behind the concept of packaging lower round picks to move up in the 2-4 rounds, where we have been VERY GOOD, IMO. In fact, that's good business to convert low-quality picks into leverage for your strength.
On the other hand, we're terrible in the 1st, IMO, during the Ireland/Loomis regime. Our 1st round picks are below the statistically expected "hit" rate. And we're trading 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks to do it. Sometimes MULTIPLE 2nd, 3rd, & 4ths. When the 1st rounder fails to perform, it has a multiplier effect, because we're lacking the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th round picks (that we're actually GOOD at) to either pick up the slack, or to challenge the under-performing 1st rounder for his starting role. So that's my proposed 2nd tweak....no more trading up in the 1st! Or maybe "capping" the number of slots to move up....no more than the combined value of the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders. If we see value in a player that's sliding, clearly sliding beyond their "bubble", we SHOULD consider moving up to grab them. But jumping up 10+/- slots is KILLING our mid-round selections, which is where our drafting strength really stands out. We're trading our KNOWN strength, for an educated GUESS...and we're wrong more often than right....and haven't gotten a single game-changer to show for it. I'd even argue for 1st round trade-downs to accumulate more 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders.
So those are my 2 proposed tweaks to your thesis....only trade up using 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders and CAP 1st round maneuvering using that restriction, or even trade down to gain more 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders. OR, stay put and draft the BDPA (best darn player available!)....even if that means you're drafting Deuce McAllister, despite Ricky Williams already being on the roster with the starting position locked up. You cool with those tweaks MadSaint? I'm onboard...