I think Payton's chances of when he gets in relies heavily on his tenure with Denver. If he tanks and ends up fired I think he may be looking at a wait to get in. If he kills it and wins a SB then he'll get in 1st ballot.
If Payton wins a SB in Denver, then he passes Reid as the second best coach of this generation. He also would be talked about as maybe a top 10 all-time HC.