PFF - have y'all seen this
Once again, here are the stats of both QB's. Derek is clearly better. Maybe not in a much bigger way, but better - @ least with good coaching.
Hard to compare QB’s on raw stats, which is why so many new derivative stats have been developed over the last few decades to add context and get better signal from the noise.
Football Outsiders is one outlet that does that, looking at team and player performance on each play and adjusting it based on situation and opposition. Two key player stats are DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). The first one measures a players total contribution relative to a replacement level player with the same number of attempts, the second measures a player’s effectiveness on a per play basis. Both are adjusted for situation (down/distance, field position, scoring margin, time remaining) and defense.
In Carr’s nine-year career, he has been top ten in DYAR four times and top ten in DVOA three times. Dalton has been top ten in both once (in 2016). Winston has not had a top ten finish in either.
That said, if Winston finishes the Bucs game in 2021, he likely would have had enough attempts (200) to have his first top ten DVOA finish in his career.
It‘s unfortunate that injuries have derailed his Saints career, but Winston definitely showed promise in our system. I wonder what could have been, but I understand that the FO wanted to go in a different direction rather than play the guy that couldn‘t complete the last two seasons.
To close things out, it‘s worth mentioning that Brees was top seven in DYAR and DVOA every year from 2006 to 2019, finishing 12th in both categories in 2020. He was so good that we will probably struggle as a fan base to recognize a good QB because we just retired one of the greats.