K Wil Lutz traded to the Broncos for a 2024 7th round pick
Grupe has looked great, but the main thing that worries me is that he wasn't that great in college. I don't know if he's made some adjustments to his kicking style, but it is hard to change that muscle memory.
I have no clue if Grupe will work out or not, but the best kickers in the NFL seem to have generally made a decent to substantial leap once they hit the NFL. I just did a quick glance, and these are the Top 10 career FG% leaders in the NFL, along with their college FG% noted second.
Justin Tucker: 90.5 / 83.3
Y. Koo: 89.0 / 89.7
D. Carlson: 88.2 / 80.7
H. Butker: 88.1 / 71.7
M. Gay: 87.8 / 86.2
J. Lambo: 87.1 / 84.0
M. Vanderjagt: 86.4 / 84.4
R. Gould: 86.5 / 63.9
K. Forbath: 86.3 / 84.2
S. Gostkowski: 86.3 / 76.1
A lot of variance. Some within a few points but worse, and some many points away. Only Koo was actually better in college from a straight numbers standpoint.
Of course with wider hashmarks and less indoor stadiums, it's expected college that stats could be worse as well. In fact, of all those with college % over 80 in the list above, nearly all played in southern states/conferences (Texas - Tucker, GT - Koo , Auburn - Carlson, Utah - Gay, Texas A&M - Lambo, UCLA Forbath). Doesn't guarantee anything, as Butker also went to GT. But maybe that is part of it, but who the heck knows? :shrug:
All said, we'll see how it works out, but I'm less concerned about college than I am how Grupe reacts when he misses a big kick or two in a row...because it will happen eventually. Justin Tucker has missed twice in a game six times, and that seems almost impossible given how often we see him drill big shots. He has even missed twice in a playoff game where his team lost. If Grupe can handle those situations, I think he (and any kicker) can succeed.