If Carr's only missing 4 weeks, and the defense can play like we know they're capable of, I don't think 3-1 is out of the realm of possibility. That hinges on Jamies playing decently and managing the games. But nobody's buying Baker being Tampa's savior, Mac Jones isn't scaring anybody, and the Texans look good but need a few more drafts to really put it together. Lawrence and the Jags on a short week is a pretty certain loss to me without Carr. But I'll happy take 3-1 or 2-2 vs another lost season with an injured QB.