KWTPF Week 8 - 'Math vs Emotion'

Bill said
Let’s face it, no matter where you hang out (particularly if it’s anywhere in the world wide web) you are probably going to hear someone giving thoughts and/or opinions that differ from your own. But one of the things that makes these KWTPF write-ups an interesting read is that most everyone who is part of this online community has their own idea about which scenarios will give our Saints the best chance of being a participant in the NFL playoffs. And that's a good thing!

I have a few different thoughts and/or opinions. Please hear me out.

Bill said
While we certainly use some general/common formulas to make these ‘pull for’ decisions, sometimes there are reasons other than ‘math’ that goes into our suggested picks. But ‘math’ can work both ways. For instance we may want an NFC team who is struggling for a wildcard spot to lose It could be best if that struggling team falls if it would allow the Saints (who may also be struggling) to fill one of those precious wildcard spots.

I went against the basic rules of KWTPF in your Week 4 write up where you and I differed. I thought it best for the Saints that the 0-3 Panthers beat the 0-3 Vikings. They didn't. The Vikings have won 3 out of their last 4 to climb back into the race for the NFC North, and at a minimum, a Wildcard Playoff spot. They are now 3-4 and a direct threat to the Saints playoff chances. The Saints go on the road to face the Vikings in Week 10. That may shape up to be a Must Win for Both Teams.

Bill said
So yes, we want discussion. And we want the ‘math’ to be working in our favor as we near the end of the regular season. Of course we need to be realistic as well. And depending on where the Saints stand down the stretch of this season, we may have to resort to emotion & gut feeling. So… where you disagree, we invite your reply. :9:

OK. Here's My Take.

Bill said
Texans (3-3) at Panthers (0-6) - It’s hard to wish any more heartache on the winless Carolina franchise, but there is little reason to send pity their way at this time. We can start pulling for them to win once we see them become a shoe-in for one of the top draft picks in April. If they were playing an NFC team this weekend it would be reasonable to pull for a Panthers win. But the better formula for now calls for a Houston victory. Go Steer Heads!

The Panthers are now 0-6. They are already a Shoe-In for one of the top draft picks. Fortunately they don't own their 1st round pick but the Saints don't need them to have the 1st pick in the 2nd round. It would be best for them to win some games, in particular, their 2 remaining games against the Bucs, games against the Cowboys, the Packers, and the Falcons.

We should want them to win more games than Denver, to insure the Saints get the highest 2nd round pick possible. Without a doubt, the Panthers will not be a Playoff team this year.

Bill said
Vikings (3-4) at Packers (2-4) – It’s a shame that the Packers hold the tiebreaker over the Saints or else this would be a much easier pick for Saints fans. That said, I’m still going to suggest that we pull for the Packers to win since I see them as being a bit less of a threat to the Saints playoff chances than are the rejuvenated Vikings. Pull for the Pack!

This we agree on, but, had Carolina beat the Vikings in Week 4 we may have thought differently. The Vikings remaining schedule includes the following 10 games: @Packers, @Falcons, Saints, @Broncos, Bears, @Raiders, @Bengals, Lions, Packers, @Lions. After beating the 49ers I doubt the Vikings fear anybody.

Now, pulling for the Packers to win moves them up to 3-4 and puts them in direct competition with the Saints while also owning the head to head tiebreaker. The Packers remaining schedule: Vikings, Rams, @Steelers, Chargers, @Lions, Chiefs, @Giants, Buccaneers, @Panthers, @Vikings, Bears. With what we think we know, Pull for the Pack.

Bill said
Eagles (6-1) at Commanders (3-4) – I’m going full ‘emotion’ on this pick. I’m tired of seeing the Eagles dominate the NFC, and anything that keeps them from being the #1 Seed is okay in my book. I know that some will assert that the WFT could be a threat to steal a coveted playoff spot with a win this week, but I just don’t see their stock climbing. With all the season that is remaining, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Commanders have a successful bird hunt on Sunday!

I can't go emotion here. I'm going with the math. The Eagles are one of the better if not the best team in the NFC. We have to accept the reality that they will be a playoff team this year, division winner or a wildcard team. The WFT is currently 3-4, already in direct competition with the Saints for a playoff spot. A win here keeps them on pace or could have them take a game lead over the Saints. Their remaining schedule: PHI, @NE, @SEA, NYG, @DAL, MIA, @LAR, @NYJ, SF, DAL. The Saints don't need the Commanders to win this week (KWTPF) but very well might need them to beat the Seahawks, the Rams, and the Cowboys down the line.

Just my thoughts and humble opinion. Thanks for inviting an alternative take.