The Average Tenure Of An NFL Head Coach

Over the past decade, the average tenure of a newly hired NFL Head Coach lasts 3.2 years, and during this period only five Head Coaches in the NFL have kept their job for a 10-year period of time. All five men - Bill Belichick (71 years old) now in his 28th season, his 23rd with the Patriots, Andy Reid (65 years old) now in his 25th season, his 11th with the Chiefs, Pete Carroll (71 years old) now in his 17th season, his 13th with the Seahawks, Mike Tomlin (51 years old) now in his 16th season with the Steelers, and John Harbaugh (61 years old) now in his 15th season with the Ravens have won a Super Bowl with their Current Franchise. Other long time NFL Head Coaches currently leading teams who have won Super Bowls with past teams are Mike McCarthy (60 years old) in his 16th season, his 4th year with the Cowboys, Sean Payton (59 years old) in his 17th season, his 1st with the Broncos, and Doug Pederson (55 years old) now in his 7th season, his 2nd with the Jaguars.

The turnover rate for NFL Head Coaches is about 25 percent each season. That's an average of 8 per year. If you removed the aforementioned coaches from the equation, the turnover rate would be even worse.

There were five New Head Coaches hired in 2023, Shane Steichen (Colts), Sean Payton (Broncos), DeMeco Ryans (Texans), Frank Reich (Panthers/Fired), and Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals). Only 10 of the league's 32 Head Coaches were hired before 2020. Since the AFC and NFC merger in 1970, there have been 32 one and done NFL Head Coaches that have been fired either during or after their first year on the job.

The average age of all NFL Coaches entering the 2020 season was 43 years old. Currently there are 14 NFL Head Coaches under the age of 45 (40%), including Sean McVay/Rams, Kyle Shanahan/49ers, Nick Sirianni/Eagles, Mike McDaniel/Dolphins, Zac Taylor/Bengals, DeMeco Ryans/Texans, Kevin Stefanski/Browns, Shane Steichen/Colts, Kevin O'Connell/Vikings. Brandon Staley/Chargers, Matt LaFleur/Packers, Robert Saleh/Jets, Jonathan Gannon/Cardinals, and Arthur Smith/Clowns.

In 2017 Sean McVay became the youngest NFL Coach in modern NFL History at the age of 30 years old. McVay was a former high school QB who was named Georgia 4A Offensive Player of the Year and he is the grandson of former NFL Head Coach John Mcvay who was also an NFL GM for the 49ers 5 Super Bowls Championships. In his first season guiding the Rams, Sean McVay completed one of the greatest Offensive turnarounds in NFL history. The Rams were the 32nd Ranked Scoring Team in the NFL in 2016 and in 2017 they were the Top Scoring Team, marking the first time in league history a team had gone from last to first in scoring. He became the youngest Head Coach in NFL History to lead his team to a Super Bowl at the age of 33, and the youngest Head Coach to win a Super Bowl at the age of 36. Without a doubt one of the brightest young minds in the league now in his 7th year as an NFL Head Coach. McVay remains the youngest NFL Head Coach in the league at 37 years old. He has a career regular season record of 66 wins and 44 losses (.600) and a postseason record of 7-3 (.700). Under his guidance, the Rams have been in the Super Bowl twice.

Nick Sirianni, a former college wide receiver, son of a coach, and a long time Offensive Coach, now in his 3rd year as Head Coach of the Eagles has a career regular season record of 33 wins and 13 losses (.717) and a post season record of 2 wins and 2 losses. He was the only first-year coach to lead a team to the playoffs in the 2021 NFL season. In 2022 the Eagles had a 14-3 record and advanced to the Super Bowl. They are currently the #1 Seed in the NFC and are in 1st place in the NFC East with a 10-2 record. Very good in all phases of the game, at times they look unbeatable.

Kyle Shanahan, a former college wide receiver and longtime NFL Offensive Coordinator, now in his 7th year as the Head Coach of the 49ers has a career record of 61 wins and 49 losses (.555), is currently 9 & 3 and in 1st Place in the NFC West. He has a career playoff record of 6 wins and 3 losses. His 49ers have made 3 NFC title game appearances and a Super Bowl berth. He has assembled a well-balanced team that currently has a good chance to win it all.

Mike McDaniel, a former college wide receiver, began his NFL coaching career at the age of 22. A long time NFL Offensive Assistant Coach, he was named Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2022. Now in his 2nd season he has a record of 18 wins and 11 losses, currently boasting a 9 win, 3 loss record good for 1st Place in the AFC East and the #1 Seed in the entire AFC, the Dolphins are destined to make the playoffs in both of his first two years as an NFL Head Coach. Most people will agree that McDaniel is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Zac Taylor, a former Nebraska QB under coach Bill Callahan, now in his 5th year as Head Coach of the Bengals, has a career regular season record of 34 wins, 42 losses and 1 tie (.448) and a post season record of 5 wins and 2 losses (.714). In 2021 he led the Bengals to their first playoff win since 1990, ending the longest active drought in the four major North American Sports in route to an appearance in Super Bowl LVI. He followed this up with 12 wins in 2022 and an appearance in the AFC Championship game. In his time with the Bengals, Taylor has won 5 postseason games, matching the franchise win total prior to his hiring as Head Coach. With a very slow start to the season and then losing their franchise QB (Burrow) for the year, the Bengals have climbed their way back into the playoff race with a 6-6 record.

Kevin O'Connell, a former NFL QB and several years as an Offensive Assistant, now in his 2nd year as Head Coach of the Vikings, has a career regular season record of 19 wins and 10 losses (.655) and a post season record of 0-1. In his first year as Head Coach the Vikings finished 1st in the NFC North with a 13-4 record. Getting off to a slow start in 2023 and losing Cousins for the year early and Jefferson for most of the year, they have rebounded to get back in the playoff race, currently the 6th Seed.

Matt LaFleur, a former college wide receiver and QB, had been a long time Offensive Assistant and also a former Offensive Coordinator, is now in his 5th season as Head Coach of the Green Bay Packers. He has a career regular season record of 53 wins and 25 losses (.679) and a post season record of 2 wins and 3 losses. Currently the Packers have a 6-6 record and they are the 7th Seed in the NFC.

Shane Steichen, a former college QB, has spent most of his NFL Coaching on the Offensive side of the ball, having spent time as the Offensive Coordinator for both the Chargers and the Eagles before being hired by the Colts in 2023 as their Head Coach. The Colts currently have a 7 win, 5 loss record and they are the 6th Seed in the AFC.

Kevin Stefanski, a former college defensive back, has spent his entire NFL Coaching career on the Offensive side of the ball and was previously an Offensive Coordinator for the Vikings before being named as the Head Coach for the Cleveland Browns in 2020 when he was named AP NFL Coach of the Year. In 2020 he became the 1st Browns Head Coach to have a winning record since 2007 finishing with an 11-5 record and making the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They won their first playoff game since 1994. Stefanski now in his 4th year as the Browns Head Coach, has a career regular season record of 33-27 (.550) and a postseason record of 1-1. The Browns currently have a record of 7-5 and they are the 5th Seed in the AFC.

Brandon Staley, a former college QB, has spent his entire career as a Defensive Coach. Now in his 3rd season as Head Coach of the L.A. Chargers, he has a career regular season record of 24 wins and 22 losses (.522) with one appearance in the playoffs, a loss. Currently the Chargers have 5-7 record and they are the 12th Seed in the AFC. Known for his in game poor decision making, most would agree that Staley has underachieved with the talent the Chargers have had.

DeMeco Ryans, a former All-Pro NFL Linebacker, was hired in 2017 as a Defensive Quality Control Coach, promoted to ILB Coach in 2018, and then promoted to Defensive Coordinator for the 2022 season after the departure of Robert Saleh. Ryans Defensive unit finished as the top defense in football by DVOA and was named PFWA Assistant Coach of the Year. On January 31, 2023, Ryans was announced as the next Head Coach of the Houston Texans, the same franchise he originally started his professional NFL career for. He is the 3rd Head Coach hired in the last 3 off seasons by the Texans. In his 1st year as Head Coach of the Texans the team has a record of 7 wins and 5 losses, and they are the 7th Seed in the AFC. So far in 2023, the Texans have equaled the number of wins in their previous 2 seasons.

Robert Saleh, a former college TE, has spent most of his 20 year coaching career as a Defensive Coach. He was the Defensive Coordinator for the 49ers from 2017 to 2020, winning a Super Bowl there and one in 2014 with the Seahawks, before being named Head Coach of the N.Y. Jets for the 2021 season. Now in his 3rd year as a Head Coach, he has a career record of 15 wins and 31 losses (.326). The team has proven to be a good defensive squad but hitched their wagon to Aaron Rodgers this year, who was lost for the year on the first offensive series of the season. Poor QB play has hampered their success under the tenure of Saleh.

Jonathan Gannon, a former college wide receiver/defensive back, has spent his entire fifteen-year NFL coaching career on the defensive side of the ball. A former Defensive Coordinator for the Eagles, Gannon was named the new Arizona Cardinals Head Coach on February 14th, 2023. Starting his first season as Head Coach of the Cardinals in 2023 without starting QB Kyler Murray, the Cardinals got a slow start rotating backup QBs to fill the void and have been out of the playoff race early on. The Cardinals have shown signs of life at times in 2023 getting their 1st win of the year against the Cowboys in week 3 and have since won 2 out of the last 4 games, wins against the Falcons and Steelers. The maiden season with Gannon at the helm can be chalked up to a transition and rebuild. Surely Gannon will return in 2024 but the team will have to show improvement on both sides of the ball in year 2 to for him to continue at the helm.

Arthur Smith, son of FedEX Founder Frederick W. Smith, was a 1st team all-state Offensive Lineman in high school and played Guard in college. Smith began his coaching career in 2007 when he became the Defensive quality control coach for the Washington Redskins. His father was a minority owner of the team at that time. Smith spent his early years on the defensive side of the ball but then transitioned to the offensive side of the ball. He was the Offensive Coordinator for the Tennessee Titans from 2019-2020 before being named Head Coach of the Failclowns for the 2021 season. Now in his 3rd year in that stint he has a career record of 20 wins and 26 losses (.435) and has not won a division title or even made the playoffs yet. He had losing seasons in his first two years. Currently, 6-6 and in 1st place in the NFC South, Smith has a chance to break the mold that he has cast. A loss this week to a division foe Bucs team could jeopardize any positive vibes that have come as of late.


So, what's to be taken from this information? From my viewpoint I'd say good luck hiring one of the coaches from the first tier, those that have been winning for many years and/or those that who have won Super Bowls. That's not likely to be an option very often. Rumors have it that Bill Belichick may be on the move after this year but at this point those are only rumors. The others will be staying put for a while unless they choose to retire. Of course, only Jerrah could Jones for what he wished he could have instead of what he has. We'll see.

Out of the 13 Head Coaches in the under 45 group, there may be a few on the hot seat that could be fired before next year. Staley has underperformed with the Chargers and has been on the hot seat since the end of last year. I'd be surprised if Saleh gets canned even though his seat in the big apple is definitely hot, as the Jets most likely will give him an opportunity to have a season with Rodgers under center. The only other one would be Smith. If the Turds crumble down the stretch and fail to make the playoffs he could be shown the door. All of the others mentioned in this group appear to be safe for now and are on the right track with their squads.

What I see mostly is Young Offensive Minded Coaches are the way to go to get a club that is in need of new direction pointed that way the quickest. The NFL is a league driven by Offensive Production. You Have to Score Points to win consistently in the NFL. Defense may win championship games but it's hard to get there without a potent offense. Of course, it helps to have balance and better yet, be good in all phases of the game. If I were looking for a new Head Coach, I would focus on the Younger Coaches with Plenty of Offensive Experience in their backgrounds. Recent success has been found in that gene pool.

So far, in the group of Head Coaches under 45 with Defensive backgrounds, only DeMeco Ryans has shown the ability to come in year one and turn a downtrodden franchise into a winning club that appears to have a bright future. Again, the jury is still out with Saleh, but the hangman has his noose in hand. I would not even consider a retread Head Coach looking for another chance, especially a Defensive minded one. For every Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll out there you're more likely to get a dozen or more of Dennis Allen, Steve Spagnuolo, Matt Patricia, Jim Schwartz, Vance Joseph, Gus Bradley, Raheem Morris, Ron Rivera, Rex Ryan, Jeff Fisher, Wade Phillips, Monte Kiffin, Dom Capers, Jim Haslett, Jim Mora, Jr.; Defensive minded coaches that couldn't win either at all or not consistently enough to warrant another shot as an NFL Head Coach. Dan Quinn may be the outlier of the bunch, but a FailClown retread would need to find a nest to roost elsewhere.

So, who do you think are the Young Offensive Minds currently coaching in the NFL that could become the next new generation Head Coach?

Would you consider any of the following coaches that are under 45 years old and are currently Offensive Coordinators such as Ben Johnson/Lions, Brian Johnson/Eagles, Frank Smith/Dolphins, Kellen Moore/Chargers, Press Taylor/Jaguars, Bobby Slowik/Texans, Mike LaFleur/Rams, Brian Calahan/Bengals, Luke Getsy/Bears, Adam Stenavich/Packers, Shane Waldron/Seahawks, Mike Kafka/Giants, Joe Brady/Bills, Dave Ragone/Falcons, Thomas Brown/Panthers, Dave Canales/Bucs, Drew Petzing/Cardinals, or Wes Phillips/Vikings (son of Wade Phillips, Grandson of Bum Phillips)