The Saints Broke The Law Of Hill The Past Two Weeks

Not to be confused with Murphys Law, it's the Law of Hill.

Through the first 10 games of the 2023 season, the Saints were 18-1 when Taysom Hill rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. He had 7 carries against the Dirty Birds in a loss. The Saints fell to an 18-2 record in games that Hill had 7 carries or more in a game in his career after the loss to ATL.

Since the beginning of the 2022 season the Saints were 9-0 when Taysom Hill rushed for 40 yards or more during a game for the past 28 games and they were 3-16 when he didn't rush for 40 or more yards in a game, prior to playing Detroit. Taysom rushed 13 times for 59 yards against the Lions in a loss. The Saints are now 9-1 when TH7 rushes for 40 yards or more in a game since the beginning of the 2022 season and 3-16 when he doesn't.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 17-1 in games that Hill rushed for 40 yards or more in a game during his career. Now they are 17-2 in such games.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 18-2 in games in which Taysom rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. Now the Saints are 18-3 in such games.

Before the Atlanta and Detroit games the Saints had won 90% of the games when Taysom got 8 or more touches in a game in his career. He had more than 8 touches in both games, which the Saints lost both. The Saints have now won only 80% of the games in which Taysom gets 8 or more touches in a game in his career.

So, in the last 2 games the Saints have defied the Law of Hill, the eye-popping stats in games in which he gets 7 or more rushes, 40 or more rushing yards, and/or 8 or more total touches in a game.

Does this mean that those stats are meaningless? Hardly. They are still eye-popping to read and to consider their implications. Most of us here have agreed that the Saints should use Taysom more throughout the games, at least to a point to get him the 7 or more rushing attempts and the 8 or more total touches in a game, since many of the games have often unfolded without those numbers being reached. The 40 yards or more in a game is a real tell where winning is concerned. Taysom got the carries and touches in the ATL game but not the 40 yards rushing threshold. His fumble was costly along with the many other mistakes the offense committed in that game. That can't be denied or overlooked. In the Detroit game he exceeded all of the stats that normally spell victory for the Saints but to no avail. Falling behind 21-0 early in the 1st quarter was a deficit that masked a lot of good things that happened afterwards. If the Saints could start games with a 10+ point lead instead of playing from behind they entire flow of the games would look different.

What stands out in the Vikings loss and the Lions loss, even after falling behind early, is that the Saints had the ball inside the opponents territory in the closing minutes of each game with a chance to take the lead but went away from both Hill and Kamara in those games and instead, chose to throw the ball, only to fail to score in those situations in both contests which resulted in losses.

With both Carr and Hill banged up as the Saints get ready to play the Panthers this week it will be interesting to see who plays, and how they are used in the Panthers game if they do play.

If and when healthy, the Saints should try to implement the Law of Hill every game. He doesn't have to be the featured guy. Kamara is That Guy. Mixing Hill in throughout the game to give a change of pace and a spark to the team is refreshing. He is a dominant runner on 1st Downs, yet the Saint Coaching Staff mostly rely on him in the short yardage game, which he is also successful in. However, using him a bit more on 1st Downs to set up short yardage down and distances for 2nd and/or 3rd downs could improve the offensive efficiency. The Saints have a one-of-a-kind tool in their kit, but they rarely use it to its maximum effect throughout the course of a game. The 7 or more carries, the 8 or more touches, nor the 40 or more rushing yards in a game guarantee nothing, but the Law of Hill proves, that when attained, the Saints chances of winning drastically increase.