Graham should be a 1st ballot HOFer
1st ballot seems extremely unlikely particularly for a TE.
Nice thing is Jimmy compares fairly favorably to WRs as well as TEs. When you have more TDs then Isaac Bruce and Megatron and more receptions than Herman Moore*, Marcus Colston, and Raymond Berry that is worth noting.
That being said TE is a position poorly filled by the NFL HoF. Still not in the HoF...
Jerry Smith, Mark Bavaro, Todd Christensen, Pete Retzlaff, Ben Coates, Marv Fleming, Lavvie Dilwig
I hope he gets in but I think he needs to pass Gronk in TDs to stay at the top of the ballot. Part of the problem is going to be the other TEs like Witten, Kelce, and Gronk that will make him look ridiculously good as opposed to undeniably great.
*not in HoF nor likely to ever be, but still a great player.