OT Coin Toss = 49'ers Demise?
Didn't give it a second thought when SF won the OT coin toss and chose to get the ball first.
But apparently that gave the advantage to the Chiefs.
Shanahan will be explaining his decision for a long time.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/how-ky...after-winning-the-ot-coin-flip-061238455.html
The most important take away from this article is that 28-3 continues get new life and will forever live on.
Shanahan’s decision will be picked apart like many others in this defeat — getting away from the run game that could have killed clock, the inability of the offense to do much of anything in the early third quarter, and the fact that Shanahan now has three brutal Super Bowl defeats — two in San Francisco plus
a blown 28-3 lead to
New England when he was the offensive coordinator in
Atlanta. :28-3:
Now back on topic. There were no analytics to refer to. The new rule allowed for both teams to get a least one possession unless there was a defensive TD on the first possession; Ie: a pick 6 or a scoop and score.
From the article:
By choosing to receive rather than kick, Shanahan allowed the Chiefs and
Patrick Mahomes to get the ball with more information to factor into their play-calling. It also meant less data for him.
That meant Kansas City knew it needed to score and would never consider punting as an option.
As such, when the Chiefs faced fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line, they went for it. Had that same scenario played out on the first drive of overtime, Kansas City would have almost assuredly punted and allowed San Francisco to win it with a field goal.
Allowing the Chiefs to go for it on fourth down was akin to a turnover. The decision also allowed Kansas City to make second- and third-down calls throughout the drive knowing it would have an extra play. It incalculably changed the decision-making.
If San Francisco had scored a touchdown and Kansas City responded, head coach Andy Reid would have had the option of winning the game with a 2-point conversion.
Shanahan essentially gave all the power and all the advantage of winning the coin flip to Kansas City for the first two possessions of the game and needed a specific result to get to the point of the game to regain it. (A 3rd possession.)
My Take:
There is no good reason to argue taking the ball first was the correct thing to do when all the above says otherwise. Also consider that taking the ball first has you starting at your own 25 with the pressure to score in some way or another without having to punt and give the opponent the upper hand to only need a FG to win. Without a Defensive Holding call that bailed out the 49ers that is exactly what would have happened. Shanahan should have deferred which is what the analytics say to do in the college game in overtime when both teams have at least one possession in OT which is what they do 95% of the time.
The second mistake Shanahan made was not going for the TD on 4th down from the 5 yard line. A TD there would have forced KC to score a TD. A turnover on downs would have made KC drive at least 55 yards to attempt a FG. Either way, all odds shifted in the Chiefs favor when the 49ers elected to take the first possession in OT.
With this new rule for playoff games now having played out the analytics will now clearly say to defer to 2nd possession when winning the coin toss. Having proved itself in the brightest lights of the Super Bowl it will be in bold print the next time it comes into play. You can count on that!