OT Coin Toss = 49'ers Demise?
Right, but if you have the 2nd possession, there is no guesswork on being conservative or going for it. You know exactly what you need. The game is in front of you.
This!
In the back and forth I easily side with 44slayer. It's not even close. It's like 9 reasons why to defer and take the 2nd possession as opposed to 1 reason to take the ball first with this new rule. I made a strong case in my first post on page 2 and also cited articles to back it up. I posted the rules on page 3 if anyone needs to get up to speed. I'll repost part of my page 2 post. below.
There were no analytics to refer to. This new rule had not come into play before the Superbowl. The new rule allowed for both teams to get a least one possession unless there was a defensive TD on the first possession; Ie: a pick 6 or a scoop and score.
By choosing to receive rather than kick, Shanahan allowed the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to get the ball with more information to factor into their play-calling. It also meant less data for him.
That meant Kansas City knew it needed to score and would never consider punting as an option.
As such, when the Chiefs faced fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line, they went for it. Had that same scenario played out on the first drive of overtime, Kansas City would have almost assuredly punted and allowed San Francisco to win it with a field goal.
Allowing the Chiefs to go for it on fourth down was akin to a turnover. The decision also allowed Kansas City to make second- and third-down calls throughout the drive knowing it would have an extra play. It incalculably changed the decision-making.
If San Francisco had scored a touchdown and Kansas City responded, head coach Andy Reid would have had the option of winning the game with a 2-point conversion.
Shanahan essentially gave all the power and all the advantage of winning the coin flip to Kansas City for the first two possessions of the game and needed a specific result to get to the point of the game to regain it. (A 3rd possession.)
There is no good reason to argue taking the ball first was the correct thing to do when all the above says otherwise. Also consider that taking the ball first has you starting at your own 25 with the pressure to score in some way or another without having to punt and give the opponent the upper hand to only need a FG to win. Without a Defensive Holding call that bailed out the 49ers that is exactly what would have happened. Shanahan should have deferred which is what the analytics say to do in the college game in overtime when both teams have at least one possession in OT which is what they do 95% of the time.
The second mistake Shanahan made was not going for the TD on 4th down from the 5 yard line. A TD there would have forced KC to score a TD. A turnover on downs would have made KC drive at least 55 yards to attempt a FG. Either way,
all odds shifted in the Chiefs favor when the 49ers elected to take the first possession in OT.
With this new rule for playoff games now having played out the analytics will now clearly say to defer to 2nd possession when winning the coin toss. Having proved itself in the brightest lights of the Super Bowl it will be in bold print the next time it comes into play. You can count on that!
Mike Florios Take:
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profo...layoffs-the-choices-are-receive-kick-or-defer
The better move would be to defer the option, securing the ability to kick the ball before overtime transforms to sudden death and likewise getting the ball if/when there’s a third overtime period.
Reddit Forum Take Is Overwhelmingly In Favor Of Kicking Off And Taking The 2nd Possession
The Chiefs were thoroughly prepared and had a plan in place had they won the coin toss. They would have deferred and taken the 2nd possession. Also, had the 49ers scored a TD on the first possession the Chiefs planned on going for 2 after scoring their TD for a walk off win.
I'm still of the opinion that Shanahan and the 49ers were not fully prepared and did not understand the ramifications of 1st or 2nd possession.