OT Coin Toss = 49'ers Demise?

Artifactual said
And.....You made a case in your comment for one of the reasons to take 2nd possession, knowingly or not. You've been the strongest supporter in this thread to take the ball 1st, and yet, this is one of the reasons to take the ball 2nd.

I'm not supporting taking the ball first. I'm saying I get why Shanahan did. And I'm also saying it probably didn't make that much difference. The team who plays better matters more than who goes first or second. What I'm saying is simply that the analytics probably support deferring, but that doesn't mean whoever goes second will win a lot more than not. It's an advantage, and a qb who thrives under pressure like Mahomes will exploit that. Someone else who maybe doesn't do as well under pressure might have a tougher time going second.

If it was flipped and Purdy went second, would be be able to drive down and get a TD and a 2 point conversion to seal the win? No one knows. But I like Mahomes better than Purdy in that situation.

Artifactual said
I set the challenge in my post above to give more than the 3 reasons to take 1st possession versus the 9 reasons to take 2nd possession.

I'm still waiting for someone to validate a 4th reason or more to take 1st possession but have yet to see one. Nor has anyone debunked the 9 valid reasons I presented to take 2nd possession. Right now, it's 3 to 1 in favor of taking 2nd possession (not counting the trophy).

Unless someone can make a stronger case for 1st possession, end of discussion, thread over.

Those are your conclusions. I never said you're wrong. I will say that during and immediately after the game, I didn't have all of the facts about the OT rules and scenarios and I've modified my position since this discussion has started.

I still will say that the deferring is ultimately going to marginally impact the outcome of games over a long period of time. Not all that much different from previous iterations.