Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to 4-year/180M, $100 million guaranteed

This is accurate.

Incredibly accurate passer, but he's a thinking QB. He's risk averse in times when he shouldn't be.

The Falcons will win the games they should. Lose most of the games they should lose, and they'll maybe win their wild card game, but that's it.
If the Falcons have a #1 defense, Kirk would be good enough, but getting that to align is tough when your QB draws that much money.
Falcons have had what 6 - 7 loosing seasons? I'm sure they'd be happy getting to the playoffs.