I'm basing this on the team's current optics. Hearing things like a soft rebuild, clean up the cap, retool, etc.
Unless things go completely sideways, I think he'll return in 2025. No hyperbole.
I think you're correct. Unless things really bottom out (6 wins or less IMO) he'll be back in 2025. Especially with all the excuses that were made last fall about Carr learning a new offense under Carmichael - we just reset the counter on that so I expect more of the same if the offense has another slow start.
I doubt they will extend DA until they see what next season brings but if 2023 is any indication, it's not a "playoffs or bust" situation. If the team is in the hunt for a wild card in the final weeks DA will get to finish his deal.