I think DA is Getting Year 4

I agree with some of your points. I felt they should have moved on after last year but I was willing to give it another year after his first. I think it would be time to move on if he doesn’t win the division or get a WC this year but dont actually think they will. I think if they win 6-7 games, offense improves and defense doesn’t regress they will bring him back.

As for not being serious about winning or being a contender, here is my thoughts.
We aren’t 1-2 players away. I think most agree with that. But at the same time we aren’t a coach away either. We are an overall team in the 7-9 wins range. It sucks. We could eat a ton of dead money and trade some players and fall to 3-5 wins for a year or two in the hopes we gain the draft and cap resources to climb back to the top. That’s the faster option and fans would be okay with it if they saw the light at the end of the tunnel. But there’s the strong likelihood we get stuck there in the 3-5 wins pit for a decade or more. There’s tons of examples of this around the league. Or we could go the longer more of a grind route by doing it slowly. Staying in the 7-9 wins per season range with the possibility of stealing a win or two and sneaking into the playoffs some seasons. The bad thing about this route is it can seem like they aren’t trying or are okay with being mediocre. I don’t think that’s the case. Being in limbo or a borderline good team really sucks for fans. For fans it’s better to either suck and know You blow and have the no hope or be good and have legitimate hope of making the playoffs than to be in the middle. But from a team perspective I think option two is better and seems to be the option we are rolling with.

Side note: for as little success he has actually achieved as HC I do think DA can keep a team like this in the 7-9 wins per season range and not let them slip to 3-5 wins per season. Once we get the team filled out he may surprise us by getting them to 12-13 wins but if he doesn’t and we are still just winning 7-9 games he has to go.

I totally agree with all of this except I think if they only win 6 or 7 games DA has to go. He will have had 3 years to fix the issues left by Payton and has changed the entire staff and gotten the players he wants. If there are holes (and there are especially on the OL) then they are largely his fault for not working with Loomis to fill them or having Loomis prioritize those holes over other things. I'm willing to give him another shot if he wins 8 and the team looks to be improving but IMO if he wins less than 8, it's really time to move on or you really do have a 4th year with a lame duck coach in the last year of his contract with trouble attracting free agents and possibly issues building a staff.

Will Loomis move on? I don't know. Loomis is incredibly patient which works out sometimes like when he kept Payton through 3 .500 level years, but sometimes he is too patient like he was with Haslet and Carmichael. I think keeping DA after a 7 win or less season would be far too patient.