The Electric Vehicle (EV) discussion thread (Merged)
I've seen some of these numbers... I think the EV market hits a hard wall at some point in a sense that - everyone who can afford one, and wants one... will eventually buy one... Then you have the "other half of the US" that doesn't live in a city... They live in the extended suburbs and rural areas... they grew up on mustangs, loud pipes, lifted trucks, hauling loads, dirt roads, ATVs, etc. Most of them won't have access to EV infrastructure any time in the near future... and good luck talking them into giving up the lifted F-250 on 35's for a Nissan Leaf or Rivian. Then you have the vast majority of the major inner city poor, broke college kids, lower-middle class trade and service workers, retired and elderly... They will never be in the market either... they can't even afford a car period... much less an EV.
I don't think your take is wrong - it's very substantially correct from its stated perspective.
But there is also more to the story. EV sales are continuing to grow on a trajectory. As long as the sales are significant and growing, the manufacturers are going to want to be in on it - particularly if the product is seen as the coming of a likely future.
Now look at the rest of the world. Nearly 40% of car sales in China are EV and about 25% in Europe. Automakers have markets that they focus on but they all also participate in a global market. It just isn't likely that the long-term growth trend in the US is going to go flat or reverse - though certainly individual quarters or even years may see fluctuations due to various factors.
And as a market, it is still fairly infant. Consider that the first production line gasoline cars were circa 1890 and the first production line EVs was circa 1998, so we're about 1916 for EVs . . . but with a much steeper technology development curve now.
Charging speed and range are almost certainly going to be subject to major innovation in the next five years - and that really will be a substantial improvement. I think the power grid concerns are also there in the macro and will need to improve. And for sure, the cost of entry is still too high, plain and simple.
But think that EV really is a new mode in automotive transportation that appeals more broadly to consumers that you're giving credit to - but the vast, vast majority of US drivers have never even driven an EV, much less owned or had daily access to one. They aren't for everyone to be sure, they don't need to be - but they have substantial appeal to many consumers and as the hurdles are reduced, I think the share will continue to increase.
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars
I've seen some of these numbers... I think the EV market hits a hard wall at some point in a sense that - everyone who can afford one, and wants one... will eventually buy one... Then you have the "other half of the US" that doesn't live in a city... They live in the extended suburbs and rural areas... they grew up on mustangs, loud pipes, lifted trucks, hauling loads, dirt roads, ATVs, etc. Most of them won't have access to EV infrastructure any time in the near future... and good luck talking them into giving up the lifted F-250 on 35's for a Nissan Leaf or Rivian. Then you have the vast majority of the major inner city poor, broke college kids, lower-middle class trade and service workers, retired and elderly... They will never be in the market either... they can't even afford a car period... much less an EV.