Ukraine

bclemms said

I'm not sure why but I've felt the last two weeks we are now in WWIII instead of a new cold war. I feel like both sides are starting to cross red lines and fully prepared to blow through a lot more. I think we are a ways still from truly direct contact but it also feels like we've hit a point of no return. No opinion on it either way, Russia is clearly the aggressor. Simply an observation.

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I think we are certainly at a precipice of what COULD be WWIII.

It is still a very "regional" conflict in that its contained to Ukraine. The tipping point will be if Russia decides to open additional lines of conflict with any other country (s) ( Specific to Baltic States or Finland/Sweden etc )

And i think THAT hinges on what China will do to aid Russia in that if China goes "all in" to truly form an Axis ( with Russia, Iran and NK ) then we see NATO take a giant step to combat Russian aggression.

I dont think Russia opens up a full fledged campaign without the full backing of China. They simply cant. They dont have the manpower, the mfg power or supply/materials to do so. Russians are using JET SKIIS and MOTORCYCLES now...not boats, not IFVs - They have lost over a 3rd of their entire stock of useable equipment in this 2 year conflict and they are not replacing like for like losses.