Ukraine

DCSaints_Fan said

I don't think Russia is going to do anything rash. Ukraine has been hitting targets using Western weapons "inside Russia" (what Russia considers Russia), ever since they got the longer range stuff in 2022, I think even earlier.

Any rhetoric from Putin that makes a distinction between say, Donetsk/Luhansk/Crimea and Belgorod, is a tacit admission that Putin does not think those territories are "really" a part of Russia in the same sense Belgorod is.

So we can easily throw that back at him, if he argues that.

Also McFaul suspects that Putin's strategy is based around Trump potentially winning the US presidency in November and bailing him out. Him dropping a nuke on Ukraine would be highly improbable before then, Russia would become even more of a pariah than they are now and you'd probably see neutral states like India, probably even his buddies like China start to distance themselves from him.

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I completely understand that and agree.

I also don't think Russia is going to fold up and leave town. This is going to have to end one of 3 ways. Russia collapse, regime change or full out war. Thankfully, I no longer think our elections will change that. EU is ready to go all in alone if needed.

It isn't just using western weapons to strike Russia. I don't think that red line being crossed will result in anything rash but I do see it being a constant escalation. China is getting more involved, several EU countries are ready to just start sending troops. We are sending F-16's that will further escalate. Putin is having small scale acts of war take place in EU countries and possibly even the US. While we are escalating, Russia has had it's foot on the gas the whole time and is the aggressor so don't take this as any of the propaganda talk in support of Russia, it's absolutely not that.

My point is I feel like we just passed the last offramp and the next exit is 200 miles away. I'm not saying we'll be lobbing nukes back and forth this weekend but the reality that we are on the brink of a major war has set in.