Ukraine
I completely understand that and agree.
I also don't think Russia is going to fold up and leave town. This is going to have to end one of 3 ways. Russia collapse, regime change or full out war. Thankfully, I no longer think our elections will change that. EU is ready to go all in alone if needed.
It isn't just using western weapons to strike Russia. I don't think that red line being crossed will result in anything rash but I do see it being a constant escalation. China is getting more involved, several EU countries are ready to just start sending troops. We are sending F-16's that will further escalate. Putin is having small scale acts of war take place in EU countries and possibly even the US. While we are escalating, Russia has had it's foot on the gas the whole time and is the aggressor so don't take this as any of the propaganda talk in support of Russia, it's absolutely not that.
My point is I feel like we just passed the last offramp and the next exit is 200 miles away. I'm not saying we'll be lobbing nukes back and forth this weekend but the reality that we are on the brink of a major war has set in.
They absolutely are ( The EU ) because they fully understand the stakes.
We have been "stair-stepping" this whole conflict. Which makes me frustrated because had the West fully committed back in 2022, Putin would have been faced with the "escalation" of hostilities mantra. Now, that is flipped. Any Western response/reply with additional aid is deemed "escalatory"
This entire conflict has been marred by this narrative. Russia was the first to wipe out Bucha. Irpin. The Opera Hall. They were the first to attack civilian infrastructure whit cruise missiles, S300/400, ballistic missiles and now 1000-2500lb glide bombs ( Most recent was the "Epicenter" - Home Depot like store on a Saturday afternoon) yet none of these actions are deemed "escalatory" - instead they are pawned off as "well thats what Russia does"
And we are somewhat to blame because we simply didnt match from the outset. Always reactionary. And it takes time- and as time passes, we tend to forget the WHY - So we were always going to be viewed from the lens of "the west is escalating this by sending 'x' to Ukraine"
maddening that the powers that be simply hoped this would all peter out thru its own volition. They completely underestimated Putin and his desires for a renewed Soviet Bloc, which he made abundantly clear prior to Feb 2022. West just didnt want to really believe it.
Too late.
its akin to ANY conflict...want to end it quick? dont play.
If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face, and i put up defenses and say " hey man stop" - you keep slapping. If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face and i knock your teeth out with one punch, you are no longer slapping me.