Ukraine

Both sides I believe want a ceasefire, as neither can significanlty improve their position. Yes Russia isn't going to pack up and go home, but neither is Ukraine.

It could take some type of black swan event. I personally cannot see regime collapse in Russia. But Putin could decide, continuing to fight is risky and a waste of resources. But he wants Ukraine to be the one to blink. In any case, there is zero chance Russia gives up Donetsk/Luhansk/Crimea without a fight. I doubt they would even move the current battle lines much, except where it makes tactical sense.

There could be political pressure on Ukraine for a ceasfire. Its really about the terms. They aren't going to recognize territorial acquisitions, and without some external guarantee from Western countries, they wouldn't sign anything because they know Putin would just rebuild and attack again.

Obviously if a certain person wins in November, something along these lines is going to be the likely outcome.

lets be clear....if a certain person wins in November, Ukraine is lost to Russia. Pure and simple. There is no "freezing the lines" as they currently stand. Its literally the whole thing. Kyiv will fall.

And once that happens, he will consolidate, rearm, resupply, replenish and move on Moldova. And who knows what country is next because the EU cannot defend Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Moldova. Poland should be wary.

Putin is trying to completely rearrange global power/influence. China is currently playing both sides of the fence and once they feel they see where the "winner" will be, they will fall on that side.