Here’s what I don’t get re Saints ranking predictions
So most national punditry, majority of Saints fans and even Nick and Tripp, et al have the Saints doing no better than they did last year and a good chunk saying they’ll do significantly worse
And I guess the question is ‘based on what’?
Most all have concluded (rightly, imo) that bad Oline play AND bad play calling/personnel usage were the reason we were AVERAGE
Obviously losing Ram is significant BUT he played on one leg last year and we ‘replaced’ him with a top draft choice (yes he’ll need some seasoning)
I feel Oline play is probably going to be same level as last year with maybe a 25% chance of getting better
BUT almost certainly O play calling and personnel usage gets SIGNIFICANTLY better
And with slight upgrades on D, I just don’t see how all that adds up to ‘same or worse’
Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?
I think some of it is that the O-Line is still a huge concern. Arguably with Peat leaving and Ram not likely to play, they may have taken a step back in an area that was already average to below average at best. It's possible that Fuaga is the answer at LT, Penning can take a leap forward at RT, and Saldiveri is the answer at LG given the new scheme is supposed to be very OL friendly, but they lost two known commodities on the OL and now will have to show that they somehow got better, not worse. I think they will be better with better talent and a better scheme, but it's a big question mark and an area where they could take a big step back from last year that they can't afford. I mean you are counting on a rookie RT moving to LT, Penning who got benched 1/4 of the way into the season and is now playing a position has not played before, and Saldeveri who barely saw the field last year and is moving from Tackle in college to Guard in the NFL, to be an improvement over three multi-year NFL starters including one All-Pro RT. And, if they do get worse, the season could implode.
Also, while I though the offensive play calling, game planning, and execution was bad last year, if you look at the rankings, they were actually ranked pretty high at the end of the year. So, if they do get better this year it will likely be in things like running the ball better and being able to close out games running the ball rather than a huge improvement in stats or rankings.
On defense, everyone got a year older including Demario and Cam. And while Young could break out and maybe Turner or Foskey will break out, they still have no established pass rush. And the guy they found at the end of last year to rush the passer, Baun, left in free agency.
So, while I think there should be more optimism, it takes fans who know the little things like the OL coaching change and the fact that DA, despite his faults, seems to be able to invent a pass rush out of nowhere, to know those things. So, I can certainly see how those in the media and outside of New Orleans could see this team as either being the same or worse. And, if DA loses the locker room which Underhill said he almost did last year, this team could implode. That situation is made worse by what looks to be a really difficult early season schedule. If they get off to a bad start, who knows what happens in that locker room?
Also, I think guys like Nick and Tripp have been burned in the past by what looked like a good team only to see things fall apart so they are going on the more conservative, "got to see it to believe it", side of things.