Based on his history and he is a smart man, he knows his health is his most vauluable negotiating chip.. as he said on a podcast with Ingram and Jordan, holding out is a no brainer.
He might. But, I don't see how it's a smart move. I think the height of his value is what Mixon and Henry got. And, if he holds out this year and comes back in time to get credit for the year but does not play, then he's a 30 year-old free agent RB who sat out a year and didn't have a year to prove that his drop in stats was due to a bad offense not his own decline. I doubt he even gets Mixon or Henry money at that point.
I think the truth is that the Saints are likely to give him the most money of any team in the NFL. They know that his drop in production was more about scheme than a decline and, for good or bad, the Saints have been wiling to take care of their older players like Jordan and Demario.