Ukraine

Assuming Russia does get kicked out of most of Ukraine, the narrative will probably shift to "teaching them a lesson", like China did with Vietnam. Unless they lose Crimea. I don't see any way they can spin that.
Except, D.C., that 1979 border war between China/Vietnam was due to Vietnamese leadership refusing to pay back huge loans from money, resources, and arms the Chinese felt they were owed and what they'd given them during their long conflict with the U.S for well over a decade in trying to reunify the country. Vietnam refused, and also it was done because Vietnam had invaded and deposed Chinese ally Khmer Rouge's brutal, genocidal regime in Cambodia which gave us the " Killing Fields".


That war lasted maybe a few weeks at the most and even Chinese historians today as well as most Chinese who are aware of that conflict will tell you it was a mistake that never should have happened. I have often wondered if the war itself would be more well-known today and turned out differently if the initial Chinese invasion push at the beginning had actually been more successful and PLA forces had come closer to reaching or capturing Hanoi.