What are we really expecting from Olave in year 3?

Nolan said
He's pretty excellent at 50/50 balls, especially for his size. Not sure where that's coming from. But no, YAC has never been his thing.
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He's not pretty excellent at it by far even for his size. In 2023 Out of 25 Contested catches he's caught 10 of them, good for 40%. For comparisons sake Rashid Shaheed had 9 and caught 5 for 55.6%. The year prior it was 8 out of 24 for 33.3%. Is that really improvement?


meily said
First two years he's averaged 70+ receptions for 1100 yards, I say we will see much of the same because we spread the ball around so much.
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In 2023 Olave saw 138 targets, the next closes was AK with 86, the next closest receiver was 75 with Rashid Shaheed. Michael Thomas had 64. I understand your angle but the facts are they attempted to run the offense through Olave for 2 years straight and it resulted in #2 WR production. In 2022 it was more of the same. 119 targets to Olave, 77 to Kamara, and 65 to Juwan.

So if I take you angle, and apply it to what were likely to see in 2024 with potentially fewer pass attempts AND the ball being truly spread around, unless he becomes more efficient his #s will potentially go down.

Again, for comparisons sake, Brandon Aiyuk put up better #s with less touches 101 targets (he was 49ers leader in targets as well). So if we use that for a baseline with Olave, again unless he becomes more efficient with his touches, there's a probability his #'s go down

Artifactual said
A pretty fair overall assessment of Olave through his first 2 years in the league with Some Caveats To Consider. There are 32 NFL teams. Someone, whether considered a number one receiver or not by pundits, will lead each team in receiving. Chris Olave led the Saints in receptions with 87 and in yardage with 1,123 in 2024. He ranked 17th in both categories of all WRs in the NFL in 2024.

He wasn't so lucky with injury in 2023. He got knocked out of the 1st Atlanta game early in the 3rd quarter with a concussion after dominating in the 1st half with 114 yards on 6 receptions. After suffering with the flu and missing practice on Thursday and Friday leading up to the Saints Week 14 contest with the Panthers, Olave then suffered an ankle injury during the game. He then missed the entire game the following week against the Giants.

Olave had Andy Dalton at QB in 2022 who underthrew him several times on deep balls where he was open only to allow the DB a chance to break up the pass. He started out the first 3 games of the 2024 season red hot with Carr at QB before cooling off while the offense as a whole looked totally inept and the offensive line couldn't keep Carr upright to have a chance to be consistently effective until the last 5 games of the year, in which Olave missed part of one and the entirety of another. In the final 5 games of the year where Carr shined statistically Olave saw limited targets in all but one game that he did play which was the Rams. In that game Olave had 123 yards on 9 reception. It's conceivable that had Olave played healthy in all 17 games with better play around him he would have put up close to 1,500 yards in 2024.

He doesn't need much more growth in 2024 over his first two seasons. Yards after the catch would be the main area of improvement for Olave that would be a difference maker. He worked hard the prior offseason to improve his contested catch ability. That may improve in the Kubiak offense by giving him more slants and crossing routes instead of sideline throws and deep balls. Having suffered a concussion in each of his first 2 seasons he needs to work on protecting his head when landing. His numbers don't have to improve significantly as long as the ball gets spread around and other players improve their numbers across the board.



Excerpts from DraftSharks.Com player profile - Chris Olave Injury History & Updates


Chris Olave's Preseason Player Analysis (For 2024)​

Bottom Line​

Olave remains easily the Saints’ best WR.
He improved in nearly every metric from Year 1 to Year 2, and the upward trajectory should continue this season
Though Derek Carr is still the QB, Olave will get the targets to be an every-week starter and a WR1, which is where he sits in our rankings.

What We Learned Last Year​

  • Olave posted a season-long stat line of 87 catches for 1,123 yards and five TDs in 16 games.
  • His per-game averages were slightly improved from his rookie season (2022):
    • 8.63 targets (up from 7.93)
    • 5.44 receptions (up from 4.80)
    • 70.2 yards (up from 69.5)
    • 12.9 yards per catch (down from 14.5)
    • 0.31 TDs (up from 0.27)
  • Olave ranked as the PPR WR16 in total fantasy points and WR20 in points per game.
  • He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a right ankle injury. It was the third game he’s missed in two years.
  • He had four top-12 finishes. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Olave’s target share stayed consistent from 25.6% in 2022 (21st among WRs) to 25.8% (16th among WRs).
  • Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Olave ranked 17th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run (2.07).
  • Among those same 89 WRs, Olave ranked 18th in average targeted air yards (13.3) and 12th in percentage of team air yards (37.15%).

What to Expect in 2024​

  • Olave enters his third season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
  • New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
    • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
    • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team finished 12th in the league in pass attempts (604).
  • Olave enters his third season at 24 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Olave’s career produces at 95% of his peak value at age 24.

Link To Full Article Below:

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/chris-olave/12596
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Allow me to put my words into context. The quote used by Allen is you expect a players BIGGEST jump, to come from year 1 to year 2. Yes, Olave improved, but he didn't take a huge jump despite seeing his targets increase, which is why I'm questioning how much more room for him to grow is there. I don't know that his contested catch is going to improve much, perhaps we get more from him in YAC but if were running more screens we've got to get better blocking from the WR's.

I predicted he'll have a big year, so it's in my best interest that he does...but the more I look into the details the more I potentially see a #2 WR as his ceiling.