Obama's anti-NAFTA rhetoric
How much of that is due to NAFTA and how much is due to the weakest dollar in decades and the burgeoning demand for agricultural commodities in Asia?
I have the feeling you could scrap NAFTA tomorrow and exports are going to remain at near record levels because they are cheap and demographic factors in our largest customers are driving demand.
Surely Mexico and Canada are not driving the export boom on their own?
Absolutely, the weak dollar has a lot to do with the increases in exports, along with the economic advances in China and India. But if you believe that scrapping NAFTA would have a minimal impact on our exports, I would say you're dreaming. I'll do a little bit of research over the coming days/weeks to get those estimates. Always better to quantify a discussion.
The other side of the coin; if you scrap NAFTA, you greatly accelerate wage cost inflationary pressures.
Look at it this way, what is the chief argument against NAFTA...that it robs the U.S. of jobs. What is the least of our worries right now, as a country, from a demographic and economic perspective: jobs. We simply don't have a jobs problem by historical standards, and given the current demographics of our population, we're unlikely to have a jobs problem for the foreseeable future. Yes, the unemployment rate will move higher throughout this recession. Horror of horrors, maybe it goes above 6%, who knows.
But beyond this recession, the problem this economy faces is a shortage of workers, not a surpluss of workers. NAFTA criticism is simply a political charade.