2024 Tropical Weather Thread

Latest from Wxman57 at strorm2k. Lets hope he's right.

wxman57 » Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:59 am

DunedinDave wrote:So is it me or does anyone else get Elena vibes when they see the GFS?

Btw, you want a good ole GFS vs Euro battle, this is it because they’re on opposite sides of the spectrum here.

Yeah, that was my thought. I was forecasting Elena back in 1985. Told my mother, who lived on the MS coast, to buy a generator. When it looked like Elena might go to Florida, she was upset that she had spent the money. Elena turned west and raked the MS coast and she was without power for 3 weeks. That generator came in handy.

In this case, the GFS is the extreme outlier. I would not trust it. ICON, which did best with Beryl, has it passing east of Florida. Only 2 of the ICON ensembles take it into the eastern Gulf at all. With increasing convection, there is a greater chance of it staying east of Florida.