2024 Tropical Weather Thread

My take, the GFS has been outperforming the Euro the last few years with tropics if you exclude the ghost storms. GFS tends to generate storms on the far end of its range that don't come to fruition. The Euro does not but the GFS extends out further than the Euro and therefore the bias is not 1:1.

With all that said, I don't believe any of the models and the steering currents do break down and this is going to come down to a lot of nuances that haven't been worked out yet. So from my perspective, it's really quite simple. Nobody knows, we just know there is a chance of something happening somewhere so might as well not worry about it, just be prepared to react.