20% in the next 7 days. It says nothing after 7 days and it has been 40% or more for the last 3 days. It is 100% a guessing game based on model trends. Best anyone can do. Still a chance this thing runs up the Florida peninsula as a broad system and doesnt develop.
To show how dependent this thing is on steering currents, the trough that will eventually pick up this storm or miss it and steer it back West is off the coast of Russia right now.