ELLIASJWILLIAMS said

This is based on pre-season, but I went back and charted last years pre-season games under Carmichael, and this years pre-season games under Kubiak to see If I could get a basic grasp of the offenses identity under Klint Kubiak.


My first area of interest was 1st and 10. I wanted to see our basic identity.


Carmichael

-80 1st and 10's
-55 Pass Plays
-25 Run Plays
69/31 Pass/Run Ratio on 1st down.

Kubiak

-75 1st and 10s
-35 Pass Plays
-42 Run Plays
56/44 Run Pass Ratio on 1st downs.

Anyalysis - Very skewered towards Pass first under Carmichael, while Kubiak is more run balanced. This is the type of offense Allen needs as a compliment to his defense.


My next area of interest is 2nd and 5 or less. I want to see who we are after a successful 1st down play of 5 or more.

Kubiak

-20 2nd and 5>
-11 Run Plays
-9 Pass Plays
55/45 Run Pass Ratio

Carmichael

-13 2nd and 5>
- 9 run plays
-4 pass plays
69/31 Pass/Run Ratio

Analysis - Carmichael was hyper predictable on 2nd and 5> (likely to run) and 1st and 10 (likey to pass). Kubiak apperas to be the antithesis of sneaky Pete.


My final point of interest is 2nd and 7+. I'd like to know who we slip into when things aren't going our way.

Kubiak

-34 2nd and 7+
-24 Pass
-10 Run
70/30 Pass Run Ratio

Carmichael

-44 2nd and 7+
-34 pass
-10 runs
77/23 Pass Run Ratio

Analysis - Kubiak spent less time in that down and distance than Carmichael. Both offenses get a little pass happy when they are uncomfortable but Carmichael was again more predictable. I charted Kubiak having a single game where he called pass 5x's in a row before breaking tendency with a run. Conversely, Carmichael had sequences of 10x passes, 7x passes, and 5x passes accross all 3 games before breaking tendency



Overall, the offense is going to look and flow differently under Kubiak. I don't know how many ppg were going to score, or if we'll improve on 3rd downs, but I know for a fact teams are going to have to defend the run when they play us. I know Carr will be asked to carry the load on offense far less, and I think less pressure on Carr in any capacity is a good thing.

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