Unfortunately, if we want to make the playoffs we need to go 4-2 in division, sweeping two teams. We don't split with the Falcons two years in a row. If we lose week 4, well, we know what will happen. I think we can sweep TB because we're in a good scheduling spot to do so. And Carolina is a must win.
If we win in Dallas, I will feel much better about our chances even if we lose twice to a team in our division.
If Atlanta hits it off with their improvements, they're probably going 12-5. Unless we sweep Atlanta, I don't see us having that.
Key games
Panthers times 2
Cowboys
Bucs or Falcons times 2
Chiefs or Broncos
Chargers!
Browns or Rams(does anyone really think we're losing two home games sandwiching a bye?)
Both the above or the Packers
Giants or Packers
Commanders or Eagles
Raiders
We can only afford to not satisfy one of those.
If we lose to Dallas, then it will be a rollercoaster. We could start out 1-4 then peel off a winning streak against Bucs, Broncos, Chargers, and Panthers to get above .500. I doubt we lose to both Falcons and Browns at home. So we go 6-5 before the bye(or 5-6 if we can't sweep Panthers). The Rams are starting to get 2018 type hype and this isn't Brees/Payton against them. The bye is what could save us against them. Certainly going 0-2 after the bye is unacceptable. We beat Commanders and Bucs in last four. That gives us 8 wins. Splitting weeks 13/14 and not losing to GB and Raiders both could get us to 10 wins. 9-8 may be good enough for a wild card if the Rams have a losing record with that schedule. They have to play the AFC East, Eagles, Packers, Lions, and 49ers. I have Bears, 49ers/Seahawks competing for the wild cards. I don't think NFC East gets two teams in or Lions repeat last year. Cowboys and Lions have brutal schedules.