2024 Tropical Weather Thread

Bill said

We paid the price for a quiet early season. I’m guessing that the payback is going to be a real headache.

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Could just be the forecasts (mine included) were very wrong. Obviously we had really hot water temps and climo suggested max potential with enso transitions but you still need the actual weather part to play. Dust killed a lit of the early season then so far through peak season the Bermuda high just failed to set up. That is typically the most predictable part of the equation.

Early fall doesnt necessarily mean less storms. When stalled fronts sit over the gulf, they tend to be very efficient at making tropical systems. With water so warm, it could mean hurricanes extend into November. It only takes one to really wreck things. If we do get that one, I hope people do not point to it as evidence of a good forecast because it was not. It is getting to the point of impossible to reach forecast levels.