All hurricane guidance has now pushed farther east and closer to global models. Next runs should have good center fix now that it has a core. NHC updated track looks much more in line with what I was thinking. Cone pushes all the way out to Bay St. Louis with a center fix somewhere near Morgan City.
With the hurricane guidance taking the early TX landfall out of play it makes the forecast confidence much higher and anything west of Bolivar Peninsula seems unlikely. I'm guessing tonight's model runs will be locked in with a high degree of certainty.
In addition, we are looking at high astronomical tides so this is going to be a surge event from Dauphin Island, AL to the landfall point. Places like LaPlace, northshore, southern LA coast and MS gulf coast will see impacts. Degree of impacts could vary significantly based on track, intensity and size. Places like Cocodrie, Cypremort Point and Grand Isle could see significant surge up to 10' depending on variables.
The intensity is the biggest concern. I say chances of a hurricane have jumped to at least 75% this morning based on the explosive development far earlier than models indicated. Chances of a major hurricane have increased some as well but not much. This will be less predictable than track.