Reassessment of expectations
In my view, if you win your division you are a Super Bowl contender, full stop. Anything can happen, and things change in the season so once you get to the playoffs, it's a clean slate. I also think a strong wild card team can be considered a Super Bowl contender, it is about context.
As it stands now, the Saints look like a Super Bowl contender, so that's what I selected. Two of the best three teams in the NFC in terms of performance this year have been the Saints and the Bucs, so if you end up a wild card team under one of the best teams in the NFC, then you are also a Super Bowl contender.
I had a 12 win ceiling on the team this year, with an 8 win floor. I think thats still the range unless they make it out of their brutal first 6 games with 2 or more wins. If that happens I think it creeps up to something like 10-13.