2024 Tropical Weather Thread
There's really nothing there at the moment. I think what models are suggesting is that there's a developing dip in the jet stream through the eastern gulf, converging with a westerly flow in the Caribbean that creates a circular motion in the area between the Yucatan and south of Cuba. The expectation is that this will develop into a tropical system.
Correct. It's a gyre in which models are starting development. All indications are that this development will have a massive wind field. This means widespread impacts are likely even if it is a weak system. The significance of those impacts will vary greatly by exact track and strength which is impossible to know right now. Again, all of this is just a signal even if that signal is very pronounced it still does not mean it is certain to happen.
I can't help but think life was less anxious when we didn't have these long range projections letting us know that life as we know if will be over in 10 days. I mean, I wonder how many times this level of doom showed up on some model over the years that I just didn't know about and as a result saved myself 10 days of anxiety.
But, now that I know they are out there, I can't help but look at them. Intellectually I know they are just models, they constantly change, and are very unlikely to get anything right this far out. Afterall, they often can't get this precise even a day or two before a storm makes landfall. But it's emotionally draining this time of year.
This is what I struggle with all the time and most forecasters that are more than hype.
It's like hey, this is likely to impact you in 8-12 days. It's also likely that whatever solution being presented today is wrong. Just mentioning it sets off anxiety for many. Not mentioning it leads people into planning without knowing all the information.
My dad calls me today in panic not really understanding the difference between a model 11 days out and radar. His friend on facebook said a cat 5 was coming into the gulf and posted a 928mb giant in the central gulf. People are stupid and either they do not care how it impacts others, they are naive to the way it impacts others or a combination of both.
It's like a golfer than screams "FORE" even though the ball is probably not going to hit the person it is flying towards. If you don't give them a heads up you are an butt crevasse. If you do scream it then you make someone scramble for likely no reason. The only difference here is this happens over and over again for 10 days straight with hurricane forecasts.
What I look for is run to run consistency and multiple models showing at least a similar upper air pattern. Then it's like "hey, this is worth monitoring". I don't put social media posts out there with this stuff because there is so much noise that I don't want to add to it. However, I do feel like I can contribute to SR and add in these long range updates when I start getting confident that there will at least be a storm that could impact land.
Once the storm gets going, I just try to remind everyone to ignore category number and the center line because impacts can extend well away from the center and the center line is rarely what gets hit. If this forms and is the size the models are currently indicating this is going to be more true than ever. A hurricane of that size and intensity on the GFS would flood Tampa even if the landfall is in Panama City. So everyone should be monitoring this and nobody should be panicked and nothing should be taken off the table.