2024 Tropical Weather Thread
NHC did the same thing with Francine. The models and a few local guys kept saying it was going to track East of the NHC track and it was obvious that is what it was doing even up to the point that the broken up eye wall went through Jefferson and Orleans Parish, but the NHC never changed their track.
But, this should be a lesson to all that being on the edge of the cone of uncertainty, or even a bit outside of it, doesn't mean you are safe. Little wobbles make all the difference for some.
This first post was about 10 hours before landfall and the second was about 6 hours before. NHC never adjusted the track - which I don’t think helped the NC folks as much as it could have.
Actual track vs NHC:
NHC did the same thing with Francine. The models and a few local guys kept saying it was going to track East of the NHC track and it was obvious that is what it was doing even up to the point that the broken up eye wall went through Jefferson and Orleans Parish, but the NHC never changed their track.
But, this should be a lesson to all that being on the edge of the cone of uncertainty, or even a bit outside of it, doesn't mean you are safe. Little wobbles make all the difference for some.