2024 Tropical Weather Thread

NHC did the same thing with Francine. The models and a few local guys kept saying it was going to track East of the NHC track and it was obvious that is what it was doing even up to the point that the broken up eye wall went through Jefferson and Orleans Parish, but the NHC never changed their track.

But, this should be a lesson to all that being on the edge of the cone of uncertainty, or even a bit outside of it, doesn't mean you are safe. Little wobbles make all the difference for some.

Yeah, that’s true, and I’m not sure how much of an impact it would’ve made to have that track shifted. I don’t know if people in that area really anticipated the degree to which swift water would be everywhere, threatening dams, etc. And I don’t think changing the track hours ahead of it would have made much difference.