Hot take: Loomis will never fire Dennis Allen
He might not fire him mid season, but I don’t think Loomis is so stubborn that he won’t move on after the season if the team continues to play poorly. I don’t know that mid season firings really work anyway, interim coaches aren’t normally featured in the playoffs, and you end the season in a lose lose situation if the interim coach sparks some life into the team.
Besides, the job is likely more attractive to new candidates if they think they won’t get fired on a whim during the season.
All valid points, and I tend to agree with you. But to be devil's advocate, I'd point out that mid-season firings and interim coaches not being in the playoffs is a function of the team playing too poorly to qualify for the post-season (which necessitated the firing). Teams like that don't go to the post season with their tenured coaches either.
But there is merit in not firing your coach, midseason, for the sake of making a move. Perhaps you'll have "removed the tumor", but nothing was "cured." While I tend to agree with the bolded part, i don't think that applies to a coach in his 3rd season (or 6th, depending on perspective) who typically finishes seasons anywhere from 4-12 to 7-10....with a single 9-8 finish on his resume. That's 4 out of 5 seasons, well on the way to 5 seasons out of 6...a demonstrated track record of losing. Frank Reich was fired by the Panthers owner in his 1st season...THAT is a whim. Doesn't apply to the Saints, in this instance, IMO. Matter of fact, I would argue that players have notoriously SHORT careers and those with a fire to WIN may not want to come to a franchise that's willing to "burn" losing seasons. Players in it for the extended paychecks may appreciate that, but not those with a burning fire to win. Who do you want to send that message to? The next coach, who will be here for 10+/- seasons if you do it right(!), or the players that you recruit EVERY OFF SEASON?! I'd much rather appeal to players with a burning desire to win, than a coach who appreciates job security. It's like that analogy about buying a car....if you're buying a Volvo for it's safety features and crash test ratings, I'm not sure you should be driving, and I sure as hell don't want to ride with you! JMO...
So let's assume the Saints are FORCED to make a move....the fans are storming the gates with flaming pitchforks (AGAIN! Doesn't that tell you something also?!) DA's staff is THIN on "solid" replacements for the Interim Coach tag. I don't want to see KK elevated....not yet. I have high hopes for him, but he was brought here to fix the offense. He hasn't really had the opportunity to do that yet, and I don't want his efforts diluted from that. Maybe talk to Gary Kubiak about the Interim position? It's my understanding he has been hovering in the background and whispering in his son's ear, or at least providing his son feedback on his thoughts regarding the Saints personnel and strategies. IF the elderly Kubiak is an option, that might be the best-case scenario.....take over as Interim while his son fixes the offense and grooms his son for the future HC position. Step down when KK is ready... Although that reeks of nepotism, which I suspect there is too much of in the Saints organization already.
I think you have to consider Darren Rizzi. He interviewed for the position when CSP left. Didn't get the HC position, but remained on staff. We know the Saints like that kind of loyalty. I don't know much else about Rizzi, other than he's a highly regarded ST coordinator in the league. What else is in his resume to suggest he MIGHT be a good HC? Looking around the league....ST isn't a common path to HC positions, but that was the path for one of the best HCs in the league....John Harbaugh. So while it isn't common, it's also not unprecedented.
Beyond that, the Saints staff is THIN on coaches with HC/Asst HC experience. Maybe add the OL coaches, Benton(?) and Dennison(?), but temper that with the Kubiak argument above. Having an OL coach as the HC, and boss over the OC, who is actually your boss, just isn't going to work. WHO else is there? I'm hard pressed to suggest ANYONE in house for the job.
So I guess MY preferences, in order, would be to lull Gary Kubiak out of retirement for the Interim position. If those results trend positive for the remaining 1/2 season, work out a time frame for the development of KK as OC and eventual succession as HC. Ink Gary for 1-2 more seasons, at which time he re-retires, and KK is elevated to HC. Not my favorite scenario.....but the best I can conjure up under the current circumstances.
If the Kubiak succession plan is a no-go, turn to Rizzi and give him his shot. Best case scenario, the team turns things around and the Saints have a tough decision on their hands end-of-season. Another Pierce/Raiders scenario....no matter which you decide, you're left with a "what if" question.
The only other viable option I see is to retain DA (keep chopping wood) for the remainder of the season, with the Kevin Costner Draft Day caveat to himself to "dismiss DA end of season...no matter what". DA may not be HC material, but he also may be the best candidate to finish the season, who is already in the organization/building. There's no GOOD options here. JMO...